Skip Navigation Links



       Skip Navigation Links : Home : Publications
      
 

 

  PUBLICATIONS

 

 

Publications are sorted by year of publication in subsections.

            Journals

[1] Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. (2017). The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with Temporal Bayesian Networks. To appear in PLoS ONE.

[2] Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. (2017). Towards Smart-Data: Improving predictive accuracy in long-term football team performance. Knowledge-Based Systems, 124: 93-104. [draft, DOI]

[3] Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N., & Neil, M. (2016). Integrating expert knowledge with data in Bayesian networks: Preserving data-driven expectations when the expert variables remain unobserved. Expert Systems with Applications, 56: 197-208. [draft, DOI]

[4] Fenton, N., Neil, M., Lagnado, D., Marsh, W., Yet, B., & Constantinou, A. (2016). How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models. Knowledge-Based Systems, 113: 39-50.  [Open access DOI].

[5] Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N., Marsh, W., & Radlinski, L. (2016). From complex questionnaire and interviewing data to intelligent Bayesian Network models for medical decision support. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, 67: 75-93.  [draft, DOI]

Discussed in Atlas of Science. Also discussed in Prof. Fenton's Probability and Risk blog.

[6] Yet, B., Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N., Neil, M., Luedeling, E., & Shepherd, K. (2016). A Bayesian Network Framework for Project Cost, Benefit and Risk Analysis with an Agricultural Development Case Study. Expert Systems with Applications, 60: 141-155. [draft, DOI]

Discussed in CGIAR Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE).


[7] Constantinou, A. C., Yet, B., Fenton, N., Neil, M., & Marsh, W. (2016). Value of Information Analysis for Interventional and Counterfactual Bayesian Networks in Forensic Medical Sciences. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, 66: 41-52. [DOI, draft]
 
Discussed in
Atlas of Science. Also discussed in Prof. Fenton's Probability and Risk blog. 

[8] Coid, J. W., Ullrich S., Kallis, C., Freestone, M., Gonzalez, R., Bui, L., et al. (2016). Improving risk management for violence in mental health services: a multimethods approach. Programme Grants for Applied Research, Vol. 4, Iss. 16. [DOI, PDF]

[9] Constantinou, A. C., Freestone, M., Marsh, W., & Coid, J. (2015). Causal inference for violence risk management and decision support in Forensic Psychiatry. Decision Support Systems, 80: 42-55. [DOI, draft]

[10] Constantinou, A. C., Freestone, M., Marsh W., Fenton, N., & Coid, J.W. (2015). Risk assessment and risk management of violent reoffending among prisoners. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(21): 7511-7529. [DOI, draft]

Discussed in Prof. Fenton's Probability and Risk blog.

 
[11]

Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N. E., & Pollock, L. J. H. (2014). Bayesian networks for unbiased assessment of referee bias in Association Football. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, Vol. 15, 5: 538-547. [DOI, draft]

Discussed in The Huffington Post and in Football Perspectives. Also discussed in Prof. Fenton's Probability and Risk blog.

 
[12]

Constantinou, A. C. & Fenton, N. E. (2013). Profiting from arbitrage and odds biases of the European football gambling market. The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, Vol. 7, 2: 41-70. [PDF]

[13]

Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N. E. & Neil, M. (2013). Profiting from an inefficient Association Football gambling market: Prediction, Risk and Uncertainty using Bayesian networks. Knowledge-Based Systems, 50: 60-86. [Open access DOI].

Discussed in CS4FN. Dedicated website: PI-Football.

 
[14]

Constantinou, A. C. & Fenton, N. E. (2013). Determining the level of ability of football teams by dynamic ratings based on the relative discrepancies in scores between adversaries. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Vol. 9, Iss. 1, 37–50. [DOI, draft]

Dedicated website: PI-Football. Also discussed in Jona's Opisthokonta blog.

 
[15]

Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N. E. & Neil, M. (2012). pi-football: A Bayesian network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes. Knowledge-Based Systems, 36: 322, 339. [DOI, draft]

Discussed in CS4FN. Dedicated website: PI-Football.

 
[16]

Constantinou, A. C. & Fenton, N. E. (2012). Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports: Vol. 8: Iss. 1, Article 1. [DOI, draft]

Discussed in Jona's Opisthokonta blog.

 
    
         
Under peer-review
 
 
[17] Yet, B., Neil, M., Fenton, N., Constantinou, A., & Dementiev, E. (2017). An improved method for solving Hybrid Influence Diagrams. Under review, 2017.

     
[18] Yet, B., Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N., & Neil, M. (2017). Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information of Continuous Variables using Dynamic Discretisation. Under review, 2017.

 
[19] Constantinou, A. (2017). Dolores: A temporal mixture-method model for forecasting football match outcomes from all over the world. Under review, 2017.  
 

 

           International Conferences & Workshops

[20] Fenton, N., Constantinou, A. C., & Neil, M. (2017). Combining judgments with messy data to build Bayesian Network models for improved intelligence analysis and decision support. In Proceedings of the 26th conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making (SPUDM 26), Israel, August 20-24. [To appear]

 
[21] Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. (2016). Improving predictive accuracy using Smart-Data rather than Big-Data: A case study of soccer teams' evolving performance. In Proceedings of the 13th UAI Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop (BMAW 2016), 32nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2016), New York City, USA, June 25-29, 2016, pp. 54-59. [Extended Abstract, slides]

 
[22] Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. (2016). Smart data - not just big data: Real-world decision making with Bayesian Networks. SETforBRITAIN 2016, Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Exhibition, House of Commons, Parliament, Westminster, London, UK, March 7, 2016. [poster]

 
[23] Yet, B., Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N., Neil, M., Luedeling, E., & Shepherd, K. (2015). Project Cost, Benefit and Risk Analysis using Bayesian Networks. In Proceedings of the 12th UAI Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop, 31st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2015), Amsterdam, Netherlands, July 12-16, 2015. [Abstract]

 
[24] Marsh, W., Constantinou, A. C., Yet, B. & Fenton, N. (2014). Evidence synthesis for patient-specific decision support using Bayesian networks. Life Sciences Conference: Population Health in Post-Genomic Era, London, UK. December 2014.

[25] Constantinou, A. C., Freestone, M., & Coid, J.W. (2014). Development of a Bayesian network for violence risk management. 14th Annual Meeting of the International Association of Forensic Mental Health Services (IAFMHS), Toronto, Canada. June 2014.

 
[26] Coid, J. W., Constantinou, A., Freestone, M., Kallis, C., & Bui, L. (2014). Causal models for violence risk assessment and management: a new paradigm. 14th Annual Meeting of the International Association of Forensic Mental Health Services (IAFMHS), Toronto, Canada. June 2014.

 
[27] Constantinou, A. C., Freestone, M., & Coid, J.W. (2014). Using causal inference in risk analysis of violent re-offending among UK prisoners. 15th Annual Conference of the British and Irish Group for the Study of Personality Disorder (BIGSPD), Lincoln, UK. February 2014.

 

 

           Academic and Industrial Technical Reports & Other

[28] Constantinou, A. C. (2016). Generic Bayesian Football predictions based on discrepancies in strength between adversaries. Derivable Technical Report for Venture Sports & Events Co. Ltd under Consulting Contract NO:20.SPORTS-BETTING.09/05/2016.

 
[29] Constantinou, A. C. (2016). Bayesian modelling and dynamic ratings for national football team assessment: The case of EURO 2016. Derivable Technical Report for Venture Sports & Events Co. Ltd under Consulting Contract NO:20.SPORTS-BETTING.09/05/2016.

 
[30] Constantinou, A. C. (2016). Extending Bayesian Networks and Dynamic Rating Systems to the German, French and Spanish football leagues. Derivable Technical Report for Venture Sports & Events Co. Ltd under Consulting Contract NO:19.SPORTS-BETTING.26/02/2016.

 
[31] Constantinou, A. C. (2016). An expert's guide to providing subjective inputs in Bayesian Network football models. Derivable Technical Report for Venture Sports & Events Co. Ltd under Consulting Contract NO:19.SPORTS-BETTING.26/02/2016.

 
[32] Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N., Marsh, W., & Radlinski, L. (2016). From complex questionnaire and interviewing data to intelligent Bayesian Network models. Atlas of Science, 2016. [online, PDF]

 
[33] Constantinou, A. C. (2016). Algorithmic rating for determining the current level of football team performance. Derivable Technical Report for Venture Sports & Events Co. Ltd under Consulting Contract NO:18c.SPORTS-BETTING.17/11/2015.

 
[34] Constantinou, A. C. (2016). Bayesian network modelling for betting decision making of the Under/Over 2.5 Goals Scored outcomes. Derivable Technical Report for Venture Sports & Events Co. Ltd under Consulting Contract NO:18b.SPORTS-BETTING.17/11/2015.

 
[35] Constantinou, A. C. (2015). Managing the risk of model overfitting when parameterising complex Bayesian networks with football data. Derivable Technical Report for Venture Sports & Events Co. Ltd under Consulting Contract NO:18a.SPORTS-BETTING.17/11/2015.

 
[36] Fenton, N., Neil, M., Lagnado, D., Marsh, W., Yet, B., & Constantinou, A. (2015). Modelling mutual exclusive events in Bayesian networks. Queen Mary, University of London. [draft]

 
[37] Constantinou, A. C., Yet, B., Fenton, N., Neil, M., & Marsh, W. (2015). What is the value of missing information when assessing decisions that involve actions for intervention. Atlas of Science, 2015. [online, PDF]

 
[38] Constantinou, A. C. (2015). Bayesian network modelling for football match prediction of the Asian Handicap odds. Derivable Technical Report for Venture Sports & Events Co. Ltd under Consulting Contract NO:17.BETTING.21/7/2015.

 
[39] Constantinou, A. C., Yet, B., Fenton, N., & Neil, M. (2015). Bayesian Modelling Framework for Planning and Evaluating Agricultural Development Projects. Final Derivable Report by Agena Ltd for ICRAF under Consulting Contract No. SD4/2012/214.

 
[40] Coid, J. W., Ullrich, S., Kallis, C., Freestone, M., Gonzalez, R., Bui, L., Igoumenou, A., Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N., Marsh, W., Yang, M., DeStavola, B., Hu, J., Shaw, J., Doyle, M., Archer-Power, L., Davoren, M., Osumili, B., McCrone, P., Barrett, K., Hindle, D., Bebbington P. (2015). Improving Risk Management in Mental Health Services - A Multi-Methods Approach. The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK, 2015. [draft]

 
[41] Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N. E., & Pollock, L. J. H.  (2014). Bayesian networks for unbiased assessment of referee bias in football. Football Perspectives, 4 July, 2014 [online].

[42] Constantinou, A. C. (2013). Football: Win, Lose or Draw? Computer Science For Fun (CS4FN) [online].

[43] Constantinou, A. C. (2012). Professional business models based on football match odds. Technical Report, August 2012. Agena Ltd.

 
[44]

Constantinou, A. C. (2012). Bayesian networks for prediction, risk assessment and decision making in an inefficient Association Football gambling market. Ph.D thesis, Risk and Information Management (RIM) Research Group, School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary, University of London. Primary Supervision: Prof. Norman E. Fenton, Secondary Supervision: Prof. Martin Neil. September, 2012. [Original version] [Restructured version (easier to read)]

 
[45] Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. E. (2010). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of Association Footbal forecasting systems. Queen Mary, University of London. [draft].

 
[46] Constantinou, A. C. (2010). Football Match Predictions and Betting Strategies in Association Football Gambling Market. M.Phil to Ph.D Transfer Report. Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis Research Group, Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary, University of London.

 
[47]

Constantinou, A. C. (2009). Mathematical study of rational behaviour in Poker. M.Sc Thesis, Developed in C++, Department of Engineering and Information Sciences, University of Hertfordshire, UK, Supervised by Dr. Daniel Polani. Grade: A 

 
[48]

Constantinou, A. C. (2008). Alpha-Beta in Computational Chess. B.Sc Final Year Project, Developed in C#, Department of Engineering and Information Sciences, University of Hertfordshire, UK, Supervised by Dr. Daniel Polani. Grade: A

 
   
  published online, 19/02/2012
last updated, 03/05/2017
 
     
                               

               
Copyright © 2012-2017 constantinou.info. All rights reserved.